Naked Forex by Alex Nekritin and Walter Peters

Book cover of Naked Forex by Alex Nekritin and Walter Peters

Preface

Trading on the basis of false beliefs, is a sure way to lose. Each of this book's three sections covers a trading belief and shows why it's false. Alex Nekritin and Walter Peters want to dispel the following three trading myths:

  • Profitable trading requires technical indicators.
  • The best trading systems are complex.
  • The trading method is the most important element for success.

A naked trader is someone who doesn't use indicators. The book's first section shows how naked traders concentrate on what's most important…price action. Too often, indicators draw attention away from significant price behavior.

Naked traders also rely on simple systems. A system is like a machine. The more complex it is, the more likely some part will fail. With fewer rules or components, simple systems are more reliable and more likely to lead to long-term profits. The second section details some simple and effective systems.

Everyone comes to trading with a different background, experiences, and beliefs. Your thinking and attitudes are an important part of the trading process. You could have the world's best trading system, but if something in your personality holds you back, you'll never be a success. The book's last section deals with the importance of trading psychology.

PART ONE
Naked Forex Trading Revealed

1) The Fundamentals of Forex Trading

Forex (abbreviation of "foreign exchange") is an international market which determines currency prices. Because it's a global market, trading takes place 24 hours a day. Each day trillions of dollars changes hands between individuals, institutions, and governments.

Currencies are only traded in pairs, such as the euro and dollar pair (symbol EUR/USD). Basically forex is a currency store. Buy one currency using another. In a EUR/USD trade, one trader is buying euros from another trader. In return, the first trader is giving dollars to the second trader for those euros.

The first trader in this exchange thinks the euro will become more valuable compared to the dollar. If the euro does get stronger, the trader gets a profit when the trade is closed out. To close out the trade, the trader sells the euros and gets back more dollars than it took to buy the euros.

A trader who sells the EUR/USD has the reverse expectation of the value of the two currencies. By selling the EUR/USD, the trader is expecting the euro to weaken against the dollar.

To create uniformity with the currency pairs, the standard minimum price move is a pip. A pip is one ten thousandth of the pair value. If a pair price changed from 1.0000 to 1.0001 this is a move of one pip. Some brokers use fractional pips, called pipettes. A pipette is one tenth of a pip. So a change from 1.00000 to 1.00011 is an increase of one pip and one pipette or eleven pipettes.

Forex Brokers' Dirty Little Secret
Many public traders don't realize there are two forex markets. The public only sees the retail market, but there's also the interbank market. Large traders, such as hedge funds, banks, and governments, are the ones who trade on the interbank market. Most traders operate in the retail forex, which parallels the interbank market.

Forex brokers know most public traders lose. Because of this fact, brokers will trade against their retail customers. As long as a customer continues to lose, a broker will take the opposite side of the customer's trade. This means when the customer's trade loses, the broker profits.

In the case of the few winning traders, brokers take the same trade in the interbank market. This parallel trade allows the broker's trade profit to cover the winning trader's profit.

Fundamental and Technical Analysis
There are two basic approaches to trading forex, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis uses economic data and news events to gauge a currency's relative value. Technical analysis ignores fundamental information, and instead, relies on various measures of currency price action.

Fundamental analysis is difficult. It requires weighing many factors and making subjective buy and sell decisions. In contrast, forex technical analysis is simpler, since it only relies on price.

Technical analysis indicators can give buy and sell signals which require little or no subjectivity. However, a problem with technical traders is they tend to focus on an indicator's action, instead of the market's action.

Technical indicators are a second-hand interpretation of prices. Naked traders consider only the original information source, which is price.

2) Avoiding a Trading Tragedy

Indicators are the food processors of trading. Price gets chopped up and spit out with a completely new appearance. It's no longer price, it's a data smoothie. Like real smoothies, indicators are designed to be more appealing than the raw ingredients, in this case, raw prices.

When price gets sliced and diced by an indicator, does this give a better result than price alone? Not when it comes to closely tracking prices. It's a common indicator fault to lag price movement.

Three of the most popular indicators are, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and stochastics. They typically give buy and sell signals at about the same time, but always after a market turns.

The result of lagging one step behind the market, produces several negative consequences. The first is a loss of profit on both trade entry and exit. Because the entry signal is late, this usually means a larger initial stop loss and increased risk. Less net profit also leads to larger account drawdowns.

Naked trading avoids the problem of indicator lag by trading current price action, If this was the only benefit naked trading offered, it would be enough. But naked trading also avoids a psychological problem common to trading with indicators.

When an indicator-based trader has a string of losses, there is a easy scapegoat…the indicator. Focusing on the indicator does nothing to resolve the situation. Problems don't get solved by looking at the wrong source. Naked traders avoid doing that. They take responsibility for their losses, and look to improve themselves, not an indicator.

Systems traders may also not take responsibility for losing trades. If they have a long string of losses, some traders will think the fault is a "terrible system". Other traders will see the problem as a "bad market".

The "terrible system" traders believe, either the system will no longer work, or it must be modified to be profitable again.

The "bad market" trader thinks something about the market must have changed to cause the losses. Maybe they see the reason as a sudden increase in volatility or uneven volume.

If it's not the system and not the market, what else can it be? Well, when all else fails, the blame can be put on the broker for bad fills, or getting the trade order wrong.

Naked traders see only two reasons for losses. The losses are due to simple probability or their own trading errors. These traders know with any win rate less than 100 percent, a string of losses can't be avoided. Since the loss probability can't be changed, naked traders seek to improve themselves.

One means to improvement is Market Biofeedback™. Market Biofeedback applies the idea of self-monitoring to trading. Regular biofeedback monitors a body function to train a person to control the function. For instance, when a person is anxious, their heart rate speeds up. By using a heart monitor, anxious people can train themselves to slow their heart rate when stressed.

Market Biofeedback monitors both the trader and the market. During each trade, the market is giving feedback on the trade's progress, either good or bad. It's up to the trader, to closely monitor price behavior once a trade is placed. Over time, trading flaws will become apparent and show what needs to be improved.

The second part of Market Biofeedback looks at how a trader reacts once a trade is placed. Thoughts and feelings are recorded before, during, and after each trade. Answering questions like the following can be part of the process:

  • How strongly do I feel this trade will be successful?
  • What do I like and dislike about this trade?
  • If I wasn't in the trade, would I still want to hold this position?
  • How has the market behaved since entering the trade?
  • How would I rate this trade now that it's closed out?

Good traders keep complete trading records because you can't improve what you don't measure. Monitoring both the market and yourself provides the information you need to excel.

3) Back-Testing Your System

Profitable trading is a skill that can be learned. But there's no shortcut to trading expertise. To trade well requires time, thought and effort. Like all skills, trading mastery requires effective practice. Back-testing offers that necessary practice, without putting your money at risk.

Back-testing uses historical data to see how a trading system would have performed. There are three goals to achieve when back-testing a system. The first goal is to match the method tested with your trading personality. If a system makes long-term trades, but you want daily action, it's an obvious poor fit. And if the system is a poor fit, it will be a constant struggle to trade.

The second goal of back-testing is developing a comfort level with the method. This requires back-testing over a large variety of different market situations. This will help instill confidence to deal with whatever the markets may throw at you. Seeing how the method behaved in the past, will prepare you for similar conditions in the future.

The final goal of back-testing is to achieve expertise. At the expert level, trading becomes an automatic process. You won't have to think about what to do, you'll know. By back-testing hundreds of trades, you build a foundation of experience you can rely on. And in time, you'll become an expert at effectively managing a trade.

There are two ways to back-test a trading method, manually or automated. Manual back-testing is stepping through a trade, price bar by price bar. It's important to have only the current price bar exposed and not any future prices. Otherwise, it won't properly simulate how real-time trading occurs and weakens the experience. Manual back-testing is a slow process, which is why many traders avoid doing it. But it's also true, most traders lose.

Back-testing software can simplify manual testing. The process is the same, but the software records all the trade results. This allows you to focus on your system and the market. You're not interrupted to record the trades. The software also makes it easier to review the final results, in order to spot patterns in your behavior or market action.

Automated back-testing is faster and easier than manual back-testing. It's no surprise automation is the more popular way to test. But unless you trade a completely automated system with no judgment needed, automated back-testing is not recommended.

Even if using a fully automated system, automated back-testing has a major fault. It doesn't give you the trade-by-trade experience of manual testing. A system responds to price action, but automated back-testing only shows the final results. With automated back-testing, you gain expertise in using the software, not in understanding the markets.

However you decide to back-test, don't rush. Effective practice takes time and gaining expertise doesn't happen in a day. Make sure you're comfortable with the method tested, but expect problems to crop up. When these problems occur, don't create a new rule to cover the situation. The more rules a system has, the less likely it will continue to be profitable. Naked trading avoids this hazard by relying on simplicity instead a long list of rules.

4) Identifying Support and Resistance Zones

We can't know the future, but we can know the past. History doesn't repeat exactly, but it does repeat. And a knowledge of the past, can lead to more effectively dealing with the future. Support and resistance price zones are a picture of how a market has acted in the past. Using the record of these zones can lead to better future trades.

The Defining Features of Support and Resistance Zones
  • Zones consists of regions where prices have reversed repeatedly.
  • Zones are areas, not a single price level.
  • Price extremes may act as zones.
  • Most traders can recognize which price areas are zones.
  • The easiest way to identify zones is with a line chart.
  • The older a zone is, the stronger it is.
  • Zone price levels tend to remain unchanged.
  • Naked traders use zones to enter and exit trades.

Of these eight points, the authors emphasize two. Zones are areas and zone levels last. Most technical analysis regards support and resistance as occurring at single price levels, but zones cover a price range.

A zone is a band of prices which act like a cushion. The deeper prices push into this cushion, the greater the opposing force. [Despite defining zones as areas, all the example charts in the book show zones with a single price line.]

Some traders believe only recent zones are the most important to consider. But the authors make it clear, the power of zones is not always temporary. Some currencies repeatedly bounce off the same prices for years.

Spotting Zones
It's important to correctly identify zones and plot just the major ones. Only the major zones are needed for trade set-ups. Including minor zones will clutter up the chart. If uncertain about classifying a zone, it's better to be conservative and consider it minor.

When it's hard to recognize which are the major zones, using a chart of a higher time frame can help. For instance, if trading a daily chart, checking a weekly chart makes recognizing appropriate zones easier. Any price area showing multiple reversal touches, qualifies as a zone.

Conversely, dropping to the next lower time frame chart helps identify minor zones. Finding the minor zones on a daily chart can be done with the use of a four-hour chart. The minor daily zones are used when managing a trade.

Bar charts and candle charts can sometimes obscure zones. When that happens, a line chart can help. A line chart plots only the most important price, the close. By charting only a single point for each time period, line charts can make the reversals stand out more clearly.

A line chart is also useful to check when prices seem to break through a zone. Often prices may extend deep into a zone, but then retreat at the close. This lack of follow-through by the close, shows the zone is still intact.

PART TWO
Naked-Trading Methodology

5) The Last Kiss

A catalyst is a person, thing, or event which causes or accelerates a change. In trading, a catalyst is a price pattern which sets up a trade. A catalyst is valid only when the price pattern occurs in a zone. The catalyst is the third step in the book's naked-trading strategies. The first two steps are to identify the zones and then wait for prices to approach a zone. If a catalyst forms, there's a trade opportunity.

Markets move in three directions, up, down, and sideways. Most systems trade only up and down trends, or only choppy sideways moves. One popular way to trade trends is with a breakout strategy. This type of strategy is designed to catch the start of a trend as prices move out of a sideways market.

A breakout trade requires a period of prices moving up and down with no overall progress. The highs of this price congestion create a resistance zone, and the lows a support zone. A breakout trader waits for prices to break through one of the two zones. Then a trade is entered in the direction of the breakout.

This strategy works, but there are many times when prices don't continue in the breakout direction. Instead, prices reverse and go back into the price congestion area. This failed breakout is called a fake-out. The last-kiss strategy is used to avoid fake-outs.

The last kiss is designed to confirm if an apparent breakout is valid. Once a price congestion area has formed, wait for a breakout. When prices go through and close past the lower support or upper resistance zone, this is the breakout. If this is a fake-out, most likely prices will quickly reverse back into the congestion area.

If the breakout is valid, prices will continue to move some distance in the direction of the breakout. During this period, watch for a last-kiss signal. A potential last-kiss trade is indicated if a price bar touches the breakout zone exterior, but then closes in the direction of the breakout. This is the trade signal bar.

If the breakout is to the upside, the last-kiss entry is a buy stop just above the high of the signal bar. The entry for a downward breakout is a sell stop just below the signal bar's low.

The initial stop loss is the middle of the congestion range. To find this price, add the support zone price to the resistance zone price, then divide the sum by two. A second stop, which is close-only, is placed just inside the congestion area.

The simplest way to exit the last kiss, is to get out when prices reach the next zone.

6) The Big Shadow

Since trends don't last forever, it's important to know when they have reversed. The big-shadow strategy is a two price bar formation used to identify top and bottom reversals. Like most other naked trading strategies, this catalyst is only valid in a support or resistance zone.

The big shadow consists of two price bars with the second bar (the big shadow), much larger than the first. Traders who use candlestick charts will recognize this relationship as an engulfing candlestick. But the big shadow includes specific rules beyond the size difference.

Identifying Big Shadows
  • The big shadow bar should have the largest range of recent prices. Ideally, the number of recent prices for comparison, should be at least the five previous bars.
  • The big shadow bar's high and low extend beyond the previous bar's high and low.
  • Big shadows should be the highest high or lowest low of recent prices. Ideally, at least higher or lower than the previous seven bars. The greater the number of price bars exceeded, the better.
  • The big shadow bar's close should be near the bar's high for a bullish trade, and near the bar's low for a bearish trade.
  • Big shadows are only valid in zones.

Once a big shadow is identified, an entry stop can be placed. A buy stop is placed just above the high of a bullish big shadow bar. For a bearish big shadow, a sell stop is entered below the bar's low. The stop loss is simply the reverse. The bullish stop loss is just below the big shadow bar's low, and just above the bar's high for a bearish trade.

The trade rules for big shadows don't include a specific way to exit a trade. But exiting at the nearest zone, works for this or any trade. More exit methods are covered in chapter 11.

7) Wammies and Moolahs

Naked traders examine the details of price action, unfiltered by technical indicators. Naked traders also look at common chart patterns in a different way than most technical traders. Wammies and moolahs are specific versions of what others call, double bottoms and double tops.

A double bottom is a pattern which resembles the letter "W". The first leg of the double bottom is a string of lower prices which hits a level of support and then reverses. This upward move is the second leg of the pattern. Before long, the up move reverses and heads back down to form the third leg. This downward move again finds support and reverses at approximately the same level as the first leg. The final leg moves higher to complete the double bottom.

A double top is essentially a double bottom turned upside down. Like the double bottom, the double top formation consists of four legs which resemble the letter "M". Since the two peaks reverse off the same resistance zone, they are at a similar level.

Double bottoms and double tops can be successfully traded without any further information. But naked trading makes the two patterns more reliably profitable, by applying a set of rules.

Rules to Identify Wammies
  • Prices form a double bottom in a support zone.
  • The low of the second bottom is higher than the low of the first. The higher, the better.
  • The two bottoms are separated by at least six price bars. More bars makes the formation stronger.
  • The low of the second bottom is followed by a bullish price bar with the close near the bar's high.

A wammie trade is entered with a buy stop placed a few pips above the bullish price bar. The stop loss is a few pips below the low of the first bottom. The trade can be exited at the nearest resistance zone.

Moolahs are basically upside down wammies and the rules for spotting them are the wammie rules reversed.

Rules to Identify Moolahs
  • Prices form a double top in a resistance zone.
  • The high of the second top is lower than the high of the first. It's best when the second top is significantly lower than the first.
  • The two tops have at least six price bars between them. More bars between the tops makes for a better trade.
  • Following the high of the second top, there's a bearish price bar with a close near the price bar's low.

Moolah trade entry is a sell stop a few pips below the bearish price bar. The stop loss is a few pips above the high of the first top. The trade can be exited at the nearest support zone.

In addition to the basic rules, the best wammies and mullahs to trade have certain features. If the second top or bottom has a big shadow or other catalyst, this should improve the trade. Look to trade wammies and moolahs in major clearly-defined zones.

For a reasonable profit, make sure the price difference between the wammie or moolah and the nearest zone is adequate. It's also best to find those tops and bottoms forming at price levels, which haven't been reached in a long time.

8) Kangaroo Tails

One of the aims of naked trading is simplicity. The kangaroo tail trade is a perfect example of this. The trade only requires one price bar and a few rules. Kangaroo tails provide both bullish and bearish trades. The easiest way to spot kangaroo tails, is with candlestick charts.

How to Identify a Kangaroo Tail
  • For a bullish kangaroo tail, the open and close (the body on a candlestick) are in the highest third of the bar's range. The candlestick's body is in the lowest third, for a bearish tail.
  • The remainder of the price bar's range is the tail, and it's longer than recent tails.
  • The difference between the open and close, the body, is very small compared to the tail.
  • The open and close of the kangaroo tail should be within the range of the previous price bar.
  • Bullish kangaroo tails should be avoided if near a large bearish price bar. Bearish kangaroo tails should be avoided if near a large bullish price bar.

To get the best kangaroo tail trades, there are several things to watch for. Look for price bars with very long tails. Bullish kangaroo tails should have the close higher than the open, and bearish tails, a close below the open.

Better kangaroo tails have a price range greater than the previous ten price bars. The best trades also occur at price levels which haven't been reached for a substantial period of time. It's best if entry occurs on the first price bar following the kangaroo tail.

Entry for a bullish trade is a buy stop a few pips above the kangaroo tail price bar's high. The stop loss is a few pips below the kangaroo tail's low. A bearish trade is the opposite, with a sell stop under the low for entry, and a stop loss a few pips above the high.

To minimize losses, it's suggested to close out a trade if the open loss is 75 percent of the initial stop loss amount. Profitable trades can close out at the nearest zone, or by using one of the exit techniques of chapter 11.

9) The Big Belt

Forex is a marketplace of currencies and opinions. If the dominant opinion on a currency is bullish, prices go up. If the dominant opinion is bearish, prices go down. The big belt trade is an example of how the dominant opinion can rapidly change from one extreme to the other.

The big belt catalyst is a single price bar. It can be either bullish or bearish. The big belt can be traded in different time frames, but usually the best results are with daily charts. In most cases, the big belt occurs on the first day of the trading week, and in a major support or resistance zone.

Identifying a Big Belt
  • A bearish big belt opens much higher than the previous close, and is near the price bar's high.
  • A bearish big belt closes near the price bar's low.
  • A bullish big belt open is much lower than the previous close, and is near the price bar's low.
  • A bullish big belt closes near the price bar's high.
  • The big belt should occur in a major zone, and at a price level which has not been reached for a significant period.

A bullish trade is entered with a buy stop a few pips above the big belt's high. The stop loss is placed just under the big belt's low. A bearish trade uses the opposite stop placement. The sell stop is just under the big belt's low and the stop loss above the high. The trade can be exited at the nearest zone.

10) The Trendy Kangaroo

Attempting to pick market tops and bottoms has a strong appeal, but usually it's best to simply follow the trend. The trendy kangaroo profits from the prevailing trend, by trading a kangaroo tail price bar, only in a specific situation.

The kangaroo tail trade of chapter 8 signals a trend reversal. But the trendy kangaroo is a signal for trend continuation. The trendy kangaroo can be traded in both bullish and bearish trends.

Identifying the Trendy Kangaroo
  • First, determine the overall market trend. Using a line chart of the time frame you trade, simply note if the market is mostly moving up, down, or sideways.
  • The market's trend must have recently shifted to a sideways direction, moving in a relatively tight range. This consolidation area is usually three to ten price bars.
  • The trendy kangaroo's open and close is in the consolidation area, but it's long tail sticks out of the narrow range of the previous price bars.
  • The open and close of the trendy kangaroo are in the top third of the price bar for a bullish trade, and the bottom third for a bearish trade.
  • The open and close of the trendy kangaroo are within the price range of the previous price bar.
  • The bullish trendy kangaroo's low significantly exceeds the lows of the consolidation price bars.
  • The bearish trendy kangaroo's high is much higher than the other consolidation price highs.
  • The trendy kangaroo is usually in a zone, often minor, but not always.

A bullish trendy kangaroo entry is made with a buy stop placed above the price bar's high. The stop loss is placed beneath the bar's low. Bearish trades use a sell stop under the low, and the stop loss just above the trendy kangaroo's high. The exit for the trade is the nearest zone.

11) Exiting the Trade

There's no shortage of trade strategies for entries, but exits are what matters the most. The exit determines if a trade makes a loss or profit, and the net amount. Choosing and executing the exit, can be the most difficult part of a trade.

The Six Stages of a Trade
  1. Analyze a chart to look for a trade opportunity.
  2. If there's a potential trade, plan the entry and exit.
  3. Enter the trade according to the plan.
  4. Monitor market action to effectively manage the trade.
  5. Exit the trade as determined by the plan.
  6. Review and grade the trade to note any problems or mistakes.

The authors divide traders into two groups, runners and gunners. Runners are traders who accept a low trade win rate, in return for large per-trade profits. Gunners accept low per-trade profits, in return for a high win rate.

The Zone Exit for Gunners
The zone exit is a standard exit for naked trading. Prices cycle between support and resistance zones. A cycle which starts at one zone, completes at the next. The zone price, which is also the exit price, is known when the trade is planned. This means no decision is required during the trade on when to exit.

When placing an exit stop, it's important to realize prices can reverse near the zone and not in it. So when placing a zone exit, put the stop within a few pips of the zone boundary nearest the trade.

The Split Exit for Gunners
The split exit is a way to increase the potential trade profit of a zone exit. The trade position is divided in two. The first half is exited at the nearest zone to the entry point. At the same time, the stop loss for the second half is moved to breakeven. The second half is exited at the next nearest zone.

The Ladder Exit for Runners
A trailing stop protects open trade profit while allowing for minor adverse price moves. The ladder exit uses a trailing stop which moves from zone to zone.

When a ladder exit trade reaches the nearest zone from entry, the stop loss is moved to breakeven. If prices continue to the next zone, the stop loss is moved to the first zone. This process is repeated as each new zone is reached.

The Three-Bar Exit for Runners
This exit also uses a trailing stop, but zones are ignored. For bullish trades, the stop is under the lowest low of the previous three price bars. The bearish trade stop is above the highest high of the last three price bars.

The three-bar exit works best when markets take off in a strong trend. Since these dynamic markets can't be anticipated, it's recommended runners use the three-bar exit for every trade. This ensures when extreme trend moves occur, a trader can profit from them.

Traders are cautioned to pick either a gunner or runner exit, and stick with it. It's natural to look at a completed trade, and see how a different exit strategy would have worked better. But each trade is unique, and has no effect on the next trade. Traders who keep switching exit strategies, will increase their frustration and decrease their profits.

PART THREE
Trading Psychology

12) The Forex Cycle

If you want to find a needle in a haystack, you have to look in the right haystack. This idea leads many traders to become trading system junkies. For these traders, the needle is making money, and the haystack is the right system.

System junkies jump from one system to another, as soon as the first system has a series of losing trades. The authors call this, the cycle of doom. As long as the search continues for a new system, the only thing found is losses, not profits.

The cycle of doom has three phases. The first phase is the search for a system which the trader is comfortable with. The search is over once a system is found which excites the trader. In fact, the new system is so exciting and seems so profitable, the trader sees no need test it, and can't wait to trade.

With a shiny new system in hand, the trader starts making trades. If the trader is unlucky, the initial trades will all be profitable. Making early profits is unlucky because it makes the trader overconfident in the system.

At this point, the trader is sure instant wealth has arrived. The only thing to do now, is take larger positions. Then at some point, reality hits the trader with a string of losing trades.

The final phase of this trading drama, is for the system junkie to blame the system for the losses. The trader was only following the system. The failure must be the system's fault. This means the only thing to do now, is to find a new system.

With the hunt for a new system, the cycle has come full circle. This futile process will not end until the trader realizes where the fault really lies. It's a trader's actions which generate profits, not the system. A system is only a tool. It's up to traders to develop the skills necessary to use the tool well.

In addition to skill, confidence in the trading system is needed. Back-testing is a risk-free way to gain the necessary confidence. Back-testing gives traders a feel for what to expect and how they might react during periods of adversity.

13) Creating Your Trading System

Every trader has a plan for trading. The best traders have a plan which includes a detailed process and set of rules. However, the plan for many traders is…no plan. They trade in a haphazard manner according to market news and their own emotions. Their lack of planning is a plan to fail.

What's Your Trading Personality?
Self knowledge is useful in all life aspects and trading is no different. Do you have the patience to hold the same position for weeks when following a trend? Or do you prefer the challenge of following markets on a minute-by-minute basis during the day? Which is more important to you, how often a trade is profitable, or the size of the profit?

It doesn't matter what type of trading you prefer, only that you can stick with it. A person has only so much mental energy to devote to trading. The constant decision making of trading intra-day, or dealing with a large drawdown during a trend, are equally stressful.

Since stress is inevitable, it's important to know how you'll deal with it. You may prefer to deal with stress through exercise, meditation, or relaxation techniques. Whatever method you use to restore your energy, it should be a part of your trading plan.

Creating Your Trading Plan
One of the goals of your trading plan should be boredom. Trading should be so automatic and consistent, it's boring. The process is like learning how to drive. At first, everything requires your constant attention and thought. But after a while, driving becomes automatic, and most of the time, boring.

Basic Trading Plan Elements
  • Create a well-defined set of rules. The rules should cover what to do in any situation. You want to eliminate, the "this time it's different" temptation. This is a feeling the system should be modified because somehow, the situation is unique.
  • Decide if you want to trade multiple currency pairs or specialize with only one. Either choice can be profitable and both require time and effort.
  • Decide if you want to trade multiple set-ups or stick with a single one. The fewer parts to follow in a trading plan, the faster it is to master. When you limit the markets you follow, and the set-ups, trading is simpler.
  • Choose your trading time frame. Your personality and available time for trading determine how to make this decision. If your time is limited, this would favor longer-term trading. But if limited patience with trend corrections is a concern, the choice of a shorter time period may be best.
  • Pick the trading session and hours you'll use for trading.
  • Determine what is an acceptable position size. You have to be comfortable with your risk exposure. IF you can't sleep at night because you're worrying about a trade, reduce the risk.
  • Choose the maximum acceptable drawdown for a set period. When you reach the maximum drawdown, stop trading for the remainder of the period. So a daily trader who reached the weekly drawdown limit on Wednesday, would stop trading for the rest of the week. During the time off, reevaluate your system to make sure there's not a problem with it, or your execution.
  • Decide how to handle correlated trades. A strong or weak currency is often strong or weak compared to multiple currencies. So if you're trading different pairs with the same currency in each pair, the trades are correlated and the overall risk is higher.
  • Plan how trades are entered and exited. You may have entry and exit points set before the trade is taken, or the prices may depend on specific price action. However a trade is managed, the process must be the same for each trade to achieve reliable results.
  • Set out how to handle specific market action. When the stop loss price is hit before the trade is entered, should the trade still be taken? If there's a reversal signal during a trade, will you exit? Does it matter if the reversal signal is in a zone? Your experience level will help determine if you adjust trades according to market action, or not. Either way, the questions should be answered before they happen, not after.
  • Set the level of trade subjectivity. Price and time can be traded in both relative and exact terms. A subjective trader would have an, "I know a large price bar when I see it" approach. But a strictly objective trader might consider "large" to be twice the largest range of the previous ten days.
  • Test your system. Use either back-testing, or a real-time demo account. Trading with a demo account is also useful if you run into multiple or larger than expected drawdowns.

How to handle negative events is an important part of a trading plan. But success also should be dealt with. A complete trading plan includes the steps to take in response to both bad and good outcomes. Don't neglect how you'll handle winning streaks or windfall profits. Whether you bank some of the profits or buy something special, it's important to acknowledge your success.

14) Becoming an Expert

An expert is a specialist. The best doctors, lawyers, scientists, and artists, all focus on doing only one thing. They don't try to excel in every aspect of their field, just one small part of it. If you wish to become an expert trader, then you need to specialize.

The Six Step Expert Process
  1. Make spotting zones automatic. Practice drawing the major support and resistance zones on charts. When uncertain about including a zone, it's best to exclude it. Too few zones is better than too many.
  2. Pick a trading catalyst to specialize in. Start with the one you feel most comfortable using.
  3. Triple the size of a back-testing account. Risking no more than two percent per trade, back-test the chosen catalyst until your account triples.
  4. Triple a demo account. Repeat the process in real time with a demo account. Again, risk no more then two percent per trade to triple the account.
  5. Triple a small account. Trade a small live account, risking two percent or less per trade, until the account triples.
  6. Trade a full-size live account. Using the same tested rules and the maximum two percent risk, repeat what worked in the previous steps.

One of the signs of expertise, is the effortless boredom of the process. If boredom with a system has set in, repeating the expert steps with another system can make sense. Trading more than one system has the benefit of risk reduction through diversification. But adding systems isn't necessary for success, and should only be done when the previous system is mastered.

There's nothing better for learning than personal experience. Thoughtful repetition is the path to expertise. To shorten the time requires for expert status, it's recommended to practice observing real-time charts forming bar by bar. Take snapshots at every one sixth of the chart period. If 60-minute charts were used, the snapshots would be taken every 10 minutes.

The objective of this process is to observe price bar formation. After each snapshot, note where the price is relative to the open, and project where you think it will go next.

When the session is finished, compare how prices changed from snapshot to snapshot, especially relative to the close.

See if the initial formation of a price bar, or the close of a prior bar, led to a higher or lower close. Lastly, consider if the session's time of day had an effect on price formation.

15) Gaining Confidence

Why should a trader take the time and effort needed to test and practice a system? The reason is confidence. The testing leads to confidence in the system. The practice leads to confidence in a trader's ability. A lack of confidence in either, is a path to failure.

Losing streaks can be a source of lost confidence. But if the system has been well tested, it's most likely the trader's fault, not the system. This could be due to poor risk management, or not trading the system in a disciplined manner. To avoid these problems, a trading buddy can monitor the trades to keep a trader on track.

A lack of discipline can show up in two other ways. A trader may begin a cycle of failure by changing systems after a losing streak. A careful analysis of trades with a written or video journal, can point to any misapplication of the system rules.

Missing out on profitable trades can also be a source of losing streaks. Trend trading typically has a low win rate and counts on a few large winners for overall success. This situation requires traders using low win-rate systems, to have the discipline and ability to take every trade. With the technology available, there's no reason not to.

Unless you trade a completely mechanical system which requires no decisions, your beliefs are part of the system. This makes beliefs a possible source for losses. Some traders may feel unworthy of getting rich. Or they have the fear wealth would negatively impact themselves, or their family. If your beliefs about money and wealth do not align with your trading goals, you're headed for failure.

When losing streaks happen, it's useful to examine the trading routine. Each part of the trade process should be precisely specified to make it easy to follow. By doing all the thinking before the trade, it makes following the routine automatic. And when a routine is easy and automatic, it's more likely to be followed.

IF your beliefs and trading routine are sound, additional back-testing or a review of previous results, can help rebuild any lost confidence. If the tests have shown the system to be profitable, then it most likely still is.

Losing streaks are an unavoidable part of any trading system. What's important is how you react to them. It's not your broker's fault, changing market conditions, or a trading system suddenly not working. Losing streaks are a matter of probability. A good plan carefully followed, is the best way to maintain confidence during a losing streak.

16) Managing Risk

One of the goals of a good trading plan is to eliminate emotional decision making. The use of sound risk management is key in preventing emotional trading. Poor risk management starts a chain of events which always ends in losses.

When an excessive amount is risked on a winning trade, a natural response is to repeat the risky trade. But even if the initial high-risk trade loses, it can lead to taking even more risk, in order to make up for the loss.

Consistent profits are the result of following a tested set of trading rules and controlling risk. Part of controlling risk is to set a maximum loss per trade. Then add a cushion of twenty percent to that amount. This amount is your worst-case trade loss. This worst-case loss is kept the same for each trade. By planning for the worst possible loss, you reduce its emotional impact.

Eliminating emotional trading is one reason for risk management, but the more important reason is account survival. Making money isn't possible without an account, so defending the account must be the top priority.

Effective trading requires discipline to follow a plan, and ignore beliefs which put an account in jeopardy. A certainty in belief about what a market will do, should not cause trade rules to be altered. When strong convictions lead to modifying a tested system, it's a losing proposition.

Some losing traders think trading more hours or making more trades will turn themselves into winners. Or maybe if they just had a bigger account, they think that's all they need. But if a profit can not be made with a small account, a large account will only mean larger losses.

A combination of marketing hype and wishful thinking leads some people to believe trading is easy. They might read a book or watch a video, and feel they're ready to leave their job to pursue quick riches. But the reality is, trading is simple, but not easy.

A final element to risk management and trading success, is determination. A trade plan is worthless without the determination to see it through. Trading is a constant test of your desire and ability. To past this test, you need determination.


PJ Nance
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